Methodology for measuring expected credit losses (ECL) according to IFRS 9
Sparebanken Møre has developed an ECL model based on the Group’s IRB parameters and applies a three-stage approach when assessing ECL on loans to customers and financial guarantees in accordance with IFRS 9.
Stage 1: At initial recognition and if there’s no significant increase in credit risk, the commitment is classified in stage 1 with 12-months ECL.
Stage 2: If a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition is identified, but without evidence of loss, the commitment is transferred to stage 2 with lifetime ECL measurement.
Stage 3: If the credit risk increases further, including evidence of loss, the commitment is transferred to stage 3 with lifetime ECL measurement. The commitment is considered to be credit-impaired. As opposed to stage 1 and 2, effective interest rate in stage 3 is calculated on net impaired commitment (total commitment less expected credit loss) instead of gross commitment.
Staging is performed at account level and implies that two or more accounts held by the same customer can be placed in different stages.
An increase in credit risk reflects both customer-specific circumstances and development in relevant macro factors for the particular customer segment. The assessment of what is considered to be a significant increase in credit risk is based on a combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators, as well as “backstops” (see separate section regarding “backstops”)
Quantitative criteria
A significant increase in credit risk is determined by comparing the PD at the reporting date with PD at initial recognition. If the actual PD is higher than initial PD, an assessment is made of whether the increase is significant.
Significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition is considered to have occurred when either
- PD has increased by 100 per cent or more and the increase in PD is more than 0.5 percentage points, or
- PD has increased by more than 2 percentage points
A 12-months PD is used to determine whether the credit risk has increased significantly.
Qualitative criteria
In addition to the quantitative assessment of a changes in the PD, a qualitative assessment is made to determine whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk, for example, if the commitment is subject to special monitoring.
“Backstops”
Credit risk is always considered to have increased significantly if the following events, “backstops”, have occurred:
- the customer’s contractual payments are 30 days past due
- the customer has been granted forbearance measures due to financial distress, though it is not severe enough to be individually assessed in stage 3.
Significant reduction in credit risk – recovery
A customer migrates from stage 2 to stage 1 if:
- The criteria for migration from stage 1 to stage 2 is no longer present, and
- This is satisfied for at least one subsequent month (total 2 months)
A customer migrates from stage 3 to stage 1 or stage 2 if the customer no longer meets the conditions for migration to stage 3:
- The customer migrates to stage 2 if more than 30 days in default.
- Otherwise, the customer migrates to stage 1.
Customers who are not subject to the migration rules above are not expected to have significant change in credit risk and retain the stage from previous month.
Definition of default, credit-impaired and forbearance
The definition of default has been amended from 1 January 2021 and has been extended to include breaches of special covenants and agreed payment reliefs (forbearance).
A commitment is defined to be in default and credit-impaired (non-performing) if a claim is more than 90 days overdue and the overdue amount exceeds the highest of 1 per cent of the exposure (loans and undrawn credits) and NOK 1,000 for the retail market and NOK 2,000 for the corporate market. Breaches of covenants can also trigger default.
A commitment is also defined to be credit-impaired (non-performing) if the commitment, as a result of a weakening of the debtor's creditworthiness, has been subject to an individual assessment, resulting in a lifetime ECL in stage 3.
A commitment is defined to be subject to forbearance (payment relief due to payment difficulties) if the bank agrees to changes in the terms and conditions as a result of the debtor having problems meeting payment obligations. Performing forbearance (not in default) is placed in stage 2 whereas non-performing (defaulted) forbearance is placed in stage 3.
Management override
Quarterly review meetings evaluate the basis for the accounting of ECL losses. If there are significant events that will affect an estimated loss which the model has not taken into account, relevant factors in the ECL model will be overridden.
Consequences of Covid-19 and measurement of expected credit loss (ECL) for loans and guarantees
Pursuant to the accounting rules (IAS 34), interim financial reports must provide an explanation of events and transactions that are significant to an understanding of the changes in financial position and performance of an entity since the last annual report. The information related to these events and transactions must take into account relevant information presented in the most recent annual report.
The bank’s loss provisions reflect expected credit loss (ECL) pursuant to IFRS 9. When assessing ECL, the relevant conditions at the time of reporting and expected economic developments are taken into account.
Covid-19 has resulted in an extraordinary situation for the bank’s customers. Due to both low oil prices and the ongoing Covid-19 situation, there is still considerable uncertainty associated with expected developments both in Norway and in the world economy, and the picture is constantly changing. This means that there is greater uncertainty about critical estimates.
Many corporate and retail customers have seen their income reduced in the short term, and the level of uncertainty associated with estimating the future cash flows and debt servicing capacity of these customers is high. On the other hand, other industries have experienced positive economic developments through 2020 and in the first quarter of 2021.
In the Group’s calculations of expected credit loss (ECL), the macroeconomic scenarios and the weightings have been impacted by the changes in economic conditions through 2020.
In the first quarter of 2021, the outlook is more positive and clearer. There are improvements in macroeconomic conditions. The vaccination of the population has started well. There are very few bankruptcies and the level of default is relatively low. The authorities have come up with new stimulus packages aimed at the hardest hit industries.
The bank granted payment relief in the first and second quarters of 2020 due to the consequences of Covid-19. Most of the customers granted interest-only periods are now paying their instalments in line with their original agreement.
As part of the process of granting payment relief, a specific, individual assessment is made of whether the application for payment relief is ‘forbearance’ and whether the loan should thus migrate to stage 2 (performing) or stage 3 (non-performing) in the Group’s ECL model.
This has been further supplemented with a more portfolio- or segment based (hotels, tourism, travel industry, personal services industry) approach to assess significantly increased credit risk and migration to stage 2. This is due to the fact that changes in future prospects are not fully captured by the ECL model.
The positive changes in the economic conditions from the fourth quarter of 2020 have continued in the first quarter of 2021 and the macroeconomic scenarios and weightings as at 31 December 2020 have been continued in the first quarter of 2021. The probability of a pessimistic scenario is 20 per cent, the base case scenario is 70 per cent probability and the best case scenario is 10 per cent.